Monday, February 19, 2007

Amateurish Error of Omission

I just noticed that Lesco is getting acquired by Deere & Co for $14.50 a share. It's usually a happy occasion when a stock of mine gets acquired, but not this time. Not only is Deere buying a company from under me at a 10% discount to my intrinsic value estimate of $16.70, but I only bought 1/3 the total number of shares I originally wanted to buy. This is a HUGE error of omission. I should have backed up the truck when this dipped to the low 10s last week. Another case of shoulda, coulda, but didn't.

This experience shows me how horrible I am at asset allocation and that I need to take quick action when my processes tell me that a rebalancing is in order. For the last three weeks, I've been dragging my feet on adding to the four stocks I listed in my previous post, mainly because I was pretty much fully invested in my portfolio. My last few posts have been all about rebalancing my portfolio, but I haven't taken any action. The only bright side to all this is the hope that my quality large cap positions will eventually pay me many times over than this fast 40% gain in LSCO that I missed. The gains on LSCO are now capped compared to my other positions. If LSCO gets much closer to my $16.70 valuation, I am going to sell it to buy some more Crown Crafts (CRWS).

Sigh, such is life...

28 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey bud, are you going to have a chance to throw your DCF spreadsheet up soon?

Been looking forward to it..

ps. Have you been buying any of the names you mentioned?

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Check out the DCF calculator at www.stockzoa.com

I recently did a DCF of MSFT at http://www.stockzoa.com/portfolio/dcf/MSFT/MTEmNyY3JjUm

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discounted cash flow analysis of Microsoft

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