Friday, December 22, 2006

Net Current Asset Value Strategy Evaluated

Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) strategy is a screen popularized by Benjamin Graham to find undervalued book-value bargain stocks. The net current asset value of the company is the total current assets less total liabilities. Current assets include cash, short-term investments, net receivables, inventory, and other current assets. A company's stock is considered a NCAV bargain (aka net/net stock) if the current total market-cap is a fraction of the net current asset value, usually two-thirds. As a value investor, I was drawn to these stocks because the risk seemed very limited if we are buying the stock at a fraction of liquidation value. Over this past year, I've experimented with this strategy by investing in a number net/net stocks that I deemed safe.

According to this site, this strategy has proven to be very successful, returning 29.4% compared to 11.5% of the S&P, spanning a 13-year period between 1970-1983. This is a real long time ago and things may be very different now. A few other sites also discuss the NCAV strategy. The Cheap Stocks blog often analyzes these net/net stocks. The stocks he invests in are representative of the best of the net/net choices. The GrahamInvestor also has a screen that lists the top few NCAV candidates. These are all good places to start.

From looking at these sites and analysis, I hand-picked six net/nets over the year. I invested in LKI, MARSB, HDL, JBSS, DHOM, and EWEB. DHOM was not a net/net stock at the time of the purchase, but is currently a net/net candidate on GrahamInvestor's screens because some long-term assets have been moved to the inventory row of the balance sheet. I held very small positions in each of these stocks and often took short-term tax losses and waited a month to re-purchase without getting hit by a wash sale. My final return on these stocks is estimated to be about 1.2%. MARSB, EWEB, and LKI were big winners, returning well over 20% each. I lost money on both JBSS and HDL, but DHOM was by far my biggest loser, with some shares declining more than 50%. I have to admit that my position sizing was a bit poor. I did not load up enough on the winners and was overweight the loser. In my defense, of course everything looks easy in hindsight. Even though one year's performance may not be representative of any strategy, it became apparent to me that this strategy holds more risk than I had originally expected. The occasional big loser can blow away any gains from the winners and the majority of the NCAV candidates will probably be losers. In other words, the strategy requires good stock selection on top of the screen.

In my opinion, there are two problems with the NCAV strategy. The first is that it was conceived and successfully employed around the time of the Great Depression, a time when there were a lot of these stocks to choose from. Nowadays only a handful of stocks satisfy these screens and you'll almost never find a company that doesn't have blemishes. Such companies include businesses that have been displaced by disruptive technologies like Handleman (HDL), a company that services CD distribution. Other companies like DHOM and JBSS may not be able to pay back their debt. And finally there are companies like EWEB that don't have much of a business model.

Another problem with this strategy is that you're putting blind faith in the company and its management to manage the current assets well. We're using a liquidation valuation to value a company that is still a going-concern. This company can very well be on a one-way trip to bankruptcy. One also has to be careful that the current assets include enough cash to handle interest payments on any debt. When a company is not able to meet its obligations and are forced to liquidate, the book value may necessarily be impaired.

If one were to successfully employ NCAV, I think he/she needs to be diversified across many issues and he/she must also be able to screen out the duds. Irwin Michael of ABC Funds does a pretty good job playing in this realm. He has a commentary site that provides detailed analysis and updates. I would recommend investing in his mutual fund over hand-picking NCAVs. Over the next year, I will be slowly unraveling my own NCAV purchases. I still own DHOM, JBSS, and HDL.

99 Comments:

Anonymous Serge said...

Great post as usual.

I've looked into "deep" value investing. Do you think its worth the extra time and effort to do the due diligence? (especially for those of us with families and full time jobs) Perhaps I'll take a more serious look when I retire one day!

Offtopic: On a side note, I'm waiting for some capital in early January to purchase WMT. With their enormous volume moat, how can an investor with a long time horizon lose with this one? I hope it stays in its current range for a few months so I can continue to acculmulate.

I pay careful attention to what Seth Klarman of Baupost Group purchases (for those not in the know he wrote the book Margin of Safety, and wrote about true value investing vs the value pretenders recently) Looks like he made a huge bet (17% of assets according to gurufocus) on HD between $34 and $37. Do you have an opinion on HD? I was at the library the other day looking at the Value Line, metrics look extremely attractive even at $39.

Merry Christmas and lets hope Santa brings us more bargains in the New Year! :)

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Blogger wcsinvestor said...

This is my second full year of investing my own money. I used to buy on hunches and then do the homework afterwards, but I've now disciplined myself to always do adequate due diligence before making any purchase.

I have a number of sources to augment my research. There are a number of very respectable blogs in this realm. I will update my blogs links to reflect my favorite blogs when I get back home after the holidays. I also like the write-ups at the Value Investor's Club, but there is a 45 day lag if you're not a member (I am not).

I also subscribe to the Motley Fool Inside Value newsletter. They have pretty good picks. USG was this past month's pick, which makes me want to revisit this stock to see if it is still a purchase at $54. MF's IV newsletter is top notch and the forum discussions are always very detailed. The posts on the forums are usually well-researched, so I find that I can base my stock decisions on the information from their site.

Back to your question, I think you always need to do due diligence, but only you can decide how much you need to do. The amount of DD should differ depending on how concentrated you plan to be in the stock. Sometimes it's just enough to invest along fellow value investors if it's not a large position and you like the investment thesis. I am not beyond stealing someone else's idea and profiting from it. That's why we all blog. We want to get our own ideas out there and hope that others will return the favor.

I agree with you that the amount of DD required for analyzing these cigar-butt deep value investing opportunities is a lot different than analyzing your WMTs and HDs. I'm not convinced that WMT and HD require less DD because they are still growing large cap companies. My conclusion from the 1-year experiment is that I don't have the expertise to do a good job in this realm. It takes a lot of experience playing in this area to know what to look out for.

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Blogger wcsinvestor said...

I'm real glad that you like WMT and HD. I have money in both names and am always interested in discussing either. WMT is probably the better opportunity right now. I feel like HD has been artificially inflated by the buyout rumors and we could get a better price later next year, when the rumors fade.

Right now, I have a limit order on thinkorswim to buy the Jan 09 $40 calls of WMT for around $10 dollars. Options are a good way to play the eventual upside in WMT. I think this stock will go up slowly but surely within the next 2 years, so I'm not too worried of the options expiring worthless.

I haven't done much due diligence of my own on WMT, but I think its recent poor performance isn't really indicative of what is to come. Both this stock and HD have been range-bound for the last 2-3 years, while they are doing very well operationally. I see a growth stock that everyone thinks is boring and boring does not sell well on Wall St. My only real worry is that I don't see where future growth will come from. Is China the only source of future growth? Is the company still worth more than current prices for the shares without the China story? I have the same questions for HD and the HD Supply business. I guess I need to do more DD =).

Home Depot is my 5th largest position. I definitely want to buy more, but I want to exercise some patience to see if I can get some at $36. I originally bought it almost 2 years ago at $36 and more than doubled down at $33. Unfortunately, I got scared out of selling my original $36 cost basis shares for a loss. I like how the management is signaling that there will be better times. A 50% increase, a stock repurchase plan, and denials of buyout rumors all tell me that Nardelli is committed to moving this stock. Seth Klarman's vote of confidence also helps a lot =). Maybe we should buy more at current prices. To buy or not to buy...

Serge, I've also recently been interested in a little financial company called Nicholas Financial (NICK). My next post will be a valuation of that company. I think it's worth $18, selling at about $11.50 right now.

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Anonymous Jason said...

Very very good article, mate. I look forward to more from you!

I found this tidbit a while back that sums up your article...

Cheap crap is still crap. Business quality is important because in the end, cheap is not enough. Investors who routinely buy shares because they trade at low price/earnings ratios or low price/sales ratios often find that the earnings are in a state of decline or the sales are quickly disappearing. Although various studies indicate that you can marginally beat the market if you buy a diversified basket of distressed securities at low valuations (a la Ben Graham), gigantic returns like those posted by the patron saint of investing, Warren Buffett, come from buying high quality businesses at low to medium prices.

-- Randy Befumo

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